Scientific review

James G. Breckenridge, Ph.D., U.S. Army War College

Byron Harper Ph.D., Partnership Division, NATO Special Operations Headquarters

Col. (GS) Sönke Marahrens, The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats

Project Manager

Marzena Żakowska

Leader of Game Scenarios

Lech Drab

Proof reading

Bryce Bull

Original book cover

Sandra Twardowska

Original technical edition and layout

Małgorzata Zeniuk

DTP

GroupMedia

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, by any process or technique, without the express written consent of the publisher.

© Copyright by Wydawnictwo Towarzystwa Wiedzy Obronnej, 2023

ISBN 978-83-968700-0-1 (soft cover)

ISBN 978-83-968700-5-6 (pdf)

ISBN 978-83-968700-6-3 (mobi)

ISBN 978-83-968700-7-0 (epub)

Publisher

Wydawnictwo Towarzystwa Wiedzy Obronnej

ul. 11 Listopada 11 Listopada 17/19, 03-446 Warszawa

www.two.edu.pl

[email protected]

Wydawnictwo Towarzystwa Wiedzy Obronnej [Defence Knowledge Society Press] is included in the list of scientific monographs publishers prepared by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Poland: item 665, level I – 80 points

Table of Contents

Foreword | Andrzej SOBOŃ

Review | James G. BRECKENRIDGE

Review | Byron HARPER

Review | Sönke MARAHRENS

Acknowledgements

Introduction

How to use this book?

Part 1. What is a decision game?

What is the “WHITE NOISE” strategic decision game?

The origin of the title and its meaning for the game

Assumptions and limitations

Part 2. Game’s purpose, method, objectives, tasks, organization and criteria

Purpose of the game: Why We’re Doing It?

Method of participation: How We’ll Do It?

Objectives of the game: What is the expected end state?

Tasks for players

Organization of the game

Criteria for receiving passing grade

Part 3. Game’s scenario

Detailed information regarding fictional countries

Starting situations

Conclusion

Appendix 1: Initial position of the council of ministers of WISLANDIA

Appendix 2: Map of the region

Appendix 3: Crisis communication fundamentals

Appendix 4: Preparing statements for the media

Appendix 5: Organizing press conferences

Appendix 6: Common sources of conflict with the press

Appendix 7: Example public speeches and media statements

7.1. Joint statement by the President of the Republic of Poland, the President of the Republic of Lithuania and the President of Ukraine on the Russian Federation’s decision to recognize the so-called “DPR” and “LPR”

7.2. Statement of the President of the Republic of Poland in the UN Security Council

7.3. Speech by the President of the Republic of Poland at the 76th Session of the UN General Assembly (21 September 2021)

7.4. Statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland in connection with the statement by the US Secretary of State on providing airplanes to Ukraine

7.5. Speech of the Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs at the meeting with Diplomatic Corps: UN Security Council Presidency (29 July 2019)

7.6. Statement by Permanent Representative of Poland, at a UN Security Council Briefing

7.7. PGA Remarks to the UN Forum on Minority Issues

7.8. PGA address at the meeting with Principals of the UN Sustainable Development Group

7.9. PGA Remarks at the General Assembly plenary meeting on the situation in Afghanistan

7.10. Russia/Ukraine: Statement by High Representative Josep Borrell on the latest missiles attacks

7.11. Statement by the High Representative on behalf of the EU on the explosion in Poland

7.12. Press Statement: The Suwalki corridor is safe thanks to the service of soldiers

7.13. The heads of the European Union’s defence ministries support Ukraine

7.14. Joint Statement by Prime Ministers of Ukraine, the Republic of Lithuania and the Republic of Poland on the Lublin Triangle meeting results

7.15. National Permanent Representative Statement for NATO MC or EU MC

7.16. Statement by H.E. Krzysztof Szczerski Permanent Representative of the Republic of Poland to the United Nations. Agenda item 78: “Crimes Against Humanity”

7.17. Statement by the Foreign Ministers of Sweden, Poland, and North Macedonia representing the previous, current and incoming Chairmanships of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (the OSCE Troika)

Appendix 8: Diplomatic parties and working meals

Appendix 9: Dress codes

Appendix 10: Example of help provided for refugees based on City of Warsaw support for Ukrainian refugees

References

Index of tables

Index of figures

FOREWORDAndrzej SOBOŃ

Gaming is an umbrella term for a suite of versatile methodological approaches that can support decision-making with qualitative and sometimes also quantitative data. It is useful both for educational and training purposes and also for conducting research. Many forms of gaming are employed in higher education teaching for both civilians and military personnel. Professional games are conducted by various state-owned and private organizations: international, governmental and non-governmental. NATO Civil-Military Cooperation Centre of Excellence, US Naval War College, International Red Cross, World Bank, RAND Corporation, Georgetown University and War Studies University in Warsaw with its War Games & Simulations Center being just a few examples.

The roots of gaming in teaching, learning and developing excellence are deep. People learn different social skills through play and games. Physical games also known as sport games are very helpful in developing physical fitness and abilities to participate in group activities. Various board games such as chess and Go are thousands of years old and have stood the test of time. The ability to play them well remains a symbol of intellectual prowess and allows to demonstrate one’s strategic and tactical capabilities. Using games for mastering strategy is probably as old as the strategy itself. Certain games that begin as quite realistic simulations at a time have since evolved into more abstract forms of play. Gaming became popular in security sciences field of interest once again thanks to the invention of modern wargaming, whichcame into being with invention of Kriegsspiel in 1824 in Prussia. Since then many forms of gaming have been implemented around the world, being constantly enhanced and tuned for specific needs. Important changes came with introduction of computer simulations, but at the same time many types of games focused on players experience without need of a complex or for that matter – any – simulation became widespread. Narrative matrix games are with role playing element, similar to core concepts of “WHITE NOISE” Strategic Decision Game are currently widely utilized in NATO institutions, being used both for education and identyfing and analyzing previously unanticipated future paths.

Thisoffers all the necessary information required for a player to take part in the “WHITE NOISE” Strategic Decision Game. The Author’s Team wishes all participants a successful game and many useful experiences that they can get from it.

Col. Prof. Andrzej SOBOŃ

Dean of the National Security Faculty

War Studies University, Warsaw, Poland

REVIEWJames G. BRECKENRIDGE

The US Army War College has a mission to educate and develop leaders for service at the strategic level while advancing knowledge in the global application of Landpower. Our allies play a pivotal role in supporting both aspects of this dual mandate. By sending international officers to participate in our resident program and learn alongside Joint Warfighters and interagency civilians, they greatly contribute to its success and reinforce the strength of our alliances. Just as importantly, however, allied institutions of professional military education produce cutting edge research and work products that USAWC instructors and staff can look to for inspiration. The “WHITE NOISE” Strategic Decision Game by Marzena Żakowska, Lech Drab, Marek Klasa is an example of such valuable scholarship.

The “WHITE NOISE” game gives students the opportunity to act as decision-makers and officials combating simulated information operations at the national level. Żakowska, Drab and Klasa highlight the key insight that aggressor nations around the world are employing information-centric warfare and information operations to overwhelm intelligence analysis, subvert national decision-making processes, and clutter international venues for dispute resolution. Their game gives students the opportunity to experience and combat this process within a controlled, fictitious environment. Players parse information to identify threats, develop departmental and national priorities, work together to forge a cohesive narrative, and promote that narrative through simulated engagements simulated media and international forums.

The US Army War College has a stated duty to act as a “Think Factory” by engaging in discourse and testing strategic concepts. As such, I thank the authors of the “WHITE NOISE” game for reaching out to me and my team for feedback. I offer my appreciation to War Studies University of Poland for their innovative work and look forward to seeing how further insights from their team might benefit USAWC and our students. At this critical time in our nation’s history and amid the current information-centric environment, we value the intellectual contributions of our allies in this area.

James G. BRECKENRIDGE, Ph.D.

Provost

U.S. Army War College

REVIEWByron HARPER

Professionals from all imaginable sectors frequently reference Sun Tzu’s dictum regarding knowledge of one’s self and the enemy as a prescription for success in any competitive endeavour. Commonly overlooked, however, is the ancient philosopher-general’s complimentary observation that “complete victory” also requires knowledge of “heaven and earth”; i.e., the environment.

Laudably, the “White Noise” Strategic Decision Game does not neglect the environmental dimension. Indeed, themasterfully assembles all three components of Sun Tzu’s formula to create a decision-making exercise that is unique in the field of international relations. The concept of “white noise”, as presented in the guide, provides players with a logical framework for understanding the distortions nefarious actors continuously introduce to the environment in their effort to impede effective decision making and diplomacy.

Though foundational to the diplomatic process, environmental analysis is not just the “White Noise” exercise objective. Players must also understand themselves and their competitors in context of foreign affairs. Adding a useful degree of complexity, the game calls upon players to exercise diplomatic and informational instruments of power, both unilaterally and through intergovernmental organisations, such as the United Nations, NATO and the European Union. Also notable is the ’s use of fictitious scenarios, infused with actual contemporary examples, to bridge the gap between theory and practice, and thus create a realistic problem-solving experience.

The value of a strategic-level, information-based exercise for students of diplomacy is undeniable. As “hybrid warfare,” “grey zone,”“irregular warfare,” “comprehensive defence,” and “resistance” have become integral components of the foreign affairs lexicon, the ability to identify and counter misinformation, without undermining the rules-based international order they seek to protect, has become an imperative skill for diplomats representing free-world nations.

Nevertheless, the ’s value is limited neither to foreign service officers nor to academic institutions. Organisations charged with teaching or conducting statecraft in any of its forms—diplomacy, defence or intelligence—will find this “Strategic Decision Game” to be a useful professional development tool. The Special Operations community, in particular, will most certainly employ “White Noise Strategic Decision Game” as a platform for international-interagency stakeholders to develop the intellectual interoperability necessary to achieve unity of effort within the grey zone.

In short, the “White Noise Strategic Decision Game Player” is a much needed guide to help foreign affairs students and practitioners develop and adapt approaches that are relevant to the ever-evolving diplomatic ecosystem.

Byron HARPER, Ph.D.

Deputy

Partnership Division

NATO Special Operations Headquarters

REVIEWSönke MARAHRENS

As a political scientist and advisor myself, I strongly recommend that National Defense Universities and diplomatic affairs institutions have a look at the “WHITE NOISE Strategic Decision Game“ describing the a diplomatic wargame manual compiled by Marzena Żakowska, Ph.D.; Lech Drab, Ph.D.; and Marek Klasa, Ph.D. from the Polish NDU.

The manual’s well-sorted background material provides a thorough understanding of diplomatic protocols, rules, and norms, making it an essential resource for individuals seeking to enhance their diplomatic skills. The manual’s practical approach is particularly beneficial for trainers and educators seeking to prepare their students for real-world diplomatic affairs through serious gaming. The very well written Poland based Scenario can easily be adopted to the needs and political structures of other countries.

What really strikes as new approach is the inclusion of real-world dinners and seated meetings into the game play to provide demanding opportunities for students and trainees to practice their diplomatic skills and gain a better understanding of the nuances of diplomatic protocols. Furthermore, the manual includes the idea of implementing “good manners and appropriate clothing“, which are critical components for success in diplomatic affairs remainding of the old proverb: “You never got a second chance for a first impression”.

The diplomatic wargame manual is a comprehensive guide that can significantly enhance the educational experience for studentsand trainees seeking to pursue careers in diplomacy or international relations.

Its practical approach, combined with its well-organized background material, makes it an invaluable resource for trainers and educators seeking to develop the skills necessary for success in the complex and dynamic world of diplomacy.

Sönke MARAHRENS

Colonel (GS)

Director COI Strategy and Defense

The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats

Helsinki

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The Author’s Team would like to express their sincere gratitude to the members of the Scientific Mentoring Committee and the Strategic Experts Committee for their invaluable advice on developing the book and organizing the decision game.

The Scientific Mentoring Committee consists of the following experts:

Professor Julian RICHARDS, Dean of Humanities and Social Sciences, Director of the Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies, University of Buckingham.

Colonel Associate Professor Andrzej SOBOŃ, Dean of the National Security Faculty, War Studies University.

Associate Professor Vassilis (Bill) KAPPIS, Vice Director of the Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies, University of Buckingham.

The Strategic Experts Committee, comprising subsequent experts:

Lieutenant General Sławomir WOJCIECHOWSKI, the Polish Military Representative to NATO and EU Military Committees.

Evgenia KARATARI, Deputy Head of Division at the EU Situation Room, European Union.

Lieutenant Colonel Rafał WIECZOREK, NATO Special Operation Headquarters in Mons, Belgium.

The experts offered valuable insights into strategy and diplomacy’s academic and practical application. Their contributions were instrumental in making this game successful.

We would like to extend our profound gratefulness to Tomasz ORŁOWSKI, the former Polish Ambassador to Rome, France, and Monaco, Professor at Krakowska Akademia im. Andrzeja Frycza Modrzewskiego and Paris School of International Affairs, for sharing his knowledge regarding diplomacy, diplomatic protocol, and insightful discussions.

Last but not least, we would like to thank the former students of thePostgraduate Studies III Edition in Global Affairs and Diplomacy (GAD), as well as the former students of the National Security Faculty at War Studies University, for their valuable contributions to the strategic game material. Their insightful reviews allowed the Author’s Team to refine the final material, focusing on crucial issues and trimming down the information participants needed to familiarize themselves with before starting the game. We extend our special thanks to Mariusz DEKONDY, the leader of the reviewing team, and the following alumni of the III Edition GAD Studies – Sebastian LECH, Agnieszka ŁAGOWSKA, Klaudia MACIATA, Bartosz MLYCZYŃSKI, Iwona PAWLIKOWSKA, Wojciech STOKOWIEC, and Rafał WIECZOREK. We would also like to express our appreciation to the alumni students of the National Security Faculty at War Studies University – Adrian BARTOSIEWICZ, Tomasz MICHAŁOWSKI, and Urszula JAŚKIEWICZ, for their valuable feedback.

Finally, we would like to thank Michał KLASA for providing valuable insights that helped us develop the Strategic Game.

Marzena ŻAKOWSKA, Ph.D.

Lech DRAB, Ph.D.

Marek KLASA, Ph.D.

INTRODUCTION

How to use this book?

The Author Team presents the WHITE NOISE Strategic Decision Game, which is an innovative and comprehensive resource based on the experiences of four years of Global Affairs and Diplomacy Postgraduate Studies organized at the National Security Faculty of War Studies University with the cooperation of the Center for Security and Intelligence Studies of Buckingham University. This book contains theoretical and practical components that emphasize the ways of making decisions by states and crucial international organizations. More important, it provides a strategic game scenario that can be utilized both in the national and international environment for individuals preparing to take positions in international organizations and diplomacy.

The focus of the book is to prepare participants to represent their state’s interests and international organizations in a global environment. The book emphasizes the importance of developing analytical, communication, and negotiation skills through various activities such as seminars, media briefings, working lunches, dinners, and official diplomatic dinners. These events provide participants with opportunities to apply their knowledge of diplomatic protocol and build their diplomatic skills.

Additionally, the book recognizes the significance of diplomatic events in the overall diplomatic process. These events provide a platform for exploring different perspectives and conducting productive discussions that can often lead to more significant progress than official negotiations during plenary sessions. Therefore, the book stresses the importance of utilizing such interactions to achieve diplomatic goals.

The WHITE NOISE Strategic Decision Game is divided into three main sections and includes several appendixes. Part One of thisprovides background information that allows the participants (players) to understand the nature and form of the activities they will take part in. In this part, the participants will find answers to the following questions:

What is a decision game in general overview?

What is the WHITE NOISE Strategic Decision Game?

Part Two of theprovides players with essential information on the game’s organization and rules, answering the following questions:

What is the purpose of the game?

What are the methods of participation in the game?

What are the objectives of the game?

What are the specific tasks for players?

How is the game organized and what is its schedule?

What are the criteria for passing the game?

Part Three, the scenario of the game is presented, based on answering the following questions:

What are the fictional countries present in the game and what details are known about them?

What is the starting situation?

The book contains appendices that offer sample statements and materials, including elaboration on the organization of diplomatic events and working lunches and dinners. This material is a valuable source of knowledge and will assist readers in preparing for participation in the strategic game.

Finally, we want to highlight that The WHITE NOISE Strategic Decision Game is truly groundbreaking. As there is currently no similar game available for educating future diplomats. We believe this material will be a valuable resource for enhancing the diplomatic, analytical, and communication skills required to effectively represent their state’s interests and international organizations in the global environment.

Decision games (DGs) are exercises in which participants (players) are given a scenario in which they play an active role in the presented events1